Faculty Lecture Series — Dr. David M. Blum Underlying Concepts in Warning Analysis: Pearl Harbor Revisited

Dr. David M. Blum

Underlying Concepts in Warning Analysis: Pearl Harbor Revisited

Outline of talk

  • Motivation
    — What are the warning problems?
    — Approaches used by US Intelligence Community
    — Key challenges and‘desired features of a prescriptive warning model
  • Formal model
    — Representing analyst’s mental model
    — Lead time estimation
    — Decision to alert
  • Retrospective analysis of Pearl Harbor
    — Model setup
    — Results
    — General insights

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